Herb Kay's S.O.S. System
  March 19, 2010
  "I'm Herb Kay and the most important thing to know about me is that I'm not going to lie to you or pull your chain. Ever. In my S.O.S. Guides, I give you, well, guidance, in a straight-talking and step-by-step way. The website offers the "advice side" of my system. Here, in my blog, I'm going to dig a little deeper and get a little grittier. That's the opinion side of my system. Will I say something that might shock you? Maybe. Will I ruffle some feathers? Perhaps. Will you close the page with some food for thought? Absolutely."

The Herb Kay Way is the straight forward, never-mince-words way. Check out Herb's latest blog on your money, your career, your debt, the economy and the world we live in.
 
When Downsizing is a Powerful Tool
Can We Address the Important Issues?
Just a Sentence or Two.....
A Dose of Reality
Getting Involved and Taking a Stand
Study Up on Your Loans
Drop Back Ten and Punt!
Who Can you Depend On?
Some Sobering News About the Economy
Grab a Beer and Take the Slide Home......
Another Loophole, Another Lesson
What is Your Core Conversation?
Loyalty and Leadership
The Argument for Being a Grownup
The 'Business' of Complaints
Electricity in the Air......
Taking a Hard Look at the Figures
A Public Life
My "Advice" to You
Perspective vs. History
Worried Sick!
It's About the Kids!
Gooooooooaaaallll?
Where Will the Money Come From?
Immigration Arguments: Debunked!
Blame Policy, Not Banks
Happy Birthday America!
Crony Capitalism
G8/20 and What That Means For You!
Our Economy and the Free Market
Building a Bubble?
"Fixing" Our Problems
The $20 Billion SNAFU
A Screaming Deal!
Action Breeds Success!
It's Going to Take Some Effort!
Getting Our Lives Back
For Better or Worse......... I Prefer Better
The Pressure to be President.......
This Great Nation......
Financial Reform - Ha...what a joke!
Municipal Bonds are a thing of the Past!
Feeling Good!
Moving Forward
The Signs Are All Around Us
It's a Grim Diagnosis
Oh, the Pressure.....
The Big Fat Greek Fallout
It's Getting Ugly......
Perfection is a Myth
Be Different
Moving on While Moving Ahead
An Immigration Abomination
I've Got a Question.......
Logic vs. The Logistics of Inflation
The Free Market - Greed at its Very Best
Informed on Inflation
Don't Fix What Isn't Broken
Harnessing Energy - The Herb Kay Way
Staying Ahead of the Curve
What Trade Deficit?
Greek to Me
There's a Bridge in Brooklyn......
Problems That Don't Exist
Don't Invest in Mediocrity
The Fed's Mutually Exclusive Roles
Deadly Serious
Election Year Scapegoats
"Willfully Insane"
Balancing your Beliefs - How Our Political Convictions Influence the Debate Over the Economy
Let's Reward the Renters
Don't Plug the Hole.......Replace the Bucket!
Europe's Safety Net
The Collapse of the System
Apple Makes a Lemon
Pot, Capitalism & The Free Market
Who is Your Banker?
Real Estate? Now is NOT the Time!
Grading on a Curve
When the Inflation Stars Align
When Foolishness Goes International....
The Recovery?
The Competitive Advantage of Reaganomics
What Wednesday Brings.....
Stopping The Addiction
Signing On The Dotted Line
Be Optimistic - Not Foolish
The Real Story
Selling Your House (and your credit) Short!
The Entitlement State
It's Anyone's Guess
Ask, And You Just Might Receive
Crazy Like A Fox!
It's Only Tuesday!
Spending Some Time - Cutting Spending
There's No Such Thing As Easy Money!
What Exactly is Responsible Borrowing?
Just Bite The Bullet
With Change Comes Turmoil
Q & A......The Herb Kay Way!
Wanna Bet? Gamble on Inflation!
A Lesson on Education
Two Different Beasts: Why Price Does Not Equal Wealth
For this Party - Three's a Crowd
Good Luck With All of That!
Dear Mr. Bank President:
It's Not That Simple
Raising the Stakes
State of The Union: The Herb Kay Way!
Capital Gains - Your Pains!
Cooking the Books
What's in a Name?
Questionable Choices: Healthcare Reform
And the Person of the Year Is......
A History Lesson
Goverment's Stimulus Fairytale
Let's Hope I'm Wrong
Fake Money = Real Problems
Collectors Lie
35 Million Americans Can't Be Wrong
Simple Truths, Simple Lies
Lending and The Federal Reserve: Why Making Banks Rich Again Will be Bad for the Economy
Are You Health Care Aware?
Have Good Credit? With New Legislation in the Works, the Question is, Who Cares?
Healthcare and the President
Tips for Choosing a Bank and the Right Bank Account
 
Who is Your Banker?
 

Okay, so a lot of this economic debate is complicated and hard to understand.  In particular, is the brewing currency war that we are seemingly intent on starting with the Chinese.  The minute somone starts talking about currency exchange it does tend to make one's eyes roll back in the head, but this singular issue has the potential to be the straw that breaks the camel's back and throws us into a Depression - so it needs to be understood.  Let's start with this; our side is wrong. 

It all starts with the Chinese, who pegged (linked) their currency directly to the dollar decades ago.  It goes up and down depending on the value of the dollar on world markets.  This has allowed them greater access to our markets as the exchange rate has remained rock steady.  It has also, and this is important, allowed them to be our banker.  China is the number one holder of US debt, passing Japan.  As our government is spending tons more than it takes in, we are going to be borrowing for a long time.

Now we also have a Trade Deficit with the Chinese.  This means we buy more from them than we sell to them and according to economists (who are largely idiots), this is bad.  I would submit that there is no such thing as a trade deficit, as we get goods and services for the  dollars we spend and therefore all is in perfect balance, but I am in the very small minority in this view.  Politicians and economists intent on improving the economy by any means but the obvious one (shrinking government and cutting taxes) think one way to do that is to sell more to the Chinese which would be easier if their currency, called the Yuan (pronounced You-ahn), were cheaper against the dollar.  It’s a nice theory that has been tried before lots of times and never works (think the 1970s) but nothing comes back to life like a bad idea in American politics.

The thing is that, as I said, they are our banker.  If they revalue their currency it will make their huge holdings of US Treasuries immediately worth a lot less (less valuable dollars means less valuable bonds).  So they would buy a lot less and demand a lot higher interest rates from us if they did continue to buy.  That would mean a much higher deficit and since our ability to borrow would be so expensive, that would inevitably lead to higher taxes and, you get it now, a Depression.

Let's hope the Chinese win this argument.